PRICES
The October 2024 NYMEX contract expired last Thursday at $2.585/MMBtu, down 5 cents from last Wednesday. The November 2024 NYMEX contract price increased to $2.886/MMBtu, up 7 cents from last Wednesday to yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging November 2024 through October 2025 futures contracts climbed 5 cents to $3.246/MMBtu.
According to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, the average total supply of natural gas rose by 0.3% (0.3 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production grew by 0.5% (0.5 Bcf/d) to average 101.7 Bcf/d, and average net imports from Canada decreased by 3.5% (0.2 Bcf/d) from last week.
Total U.S. consumption of natural gas fell by 3.1% (2.3 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas consumed for power generation declined by 6.8% (2.8 Bcf/d) week over week.
Consumption in the industrial sector increased by 1.3% (0.3 Bcf/d), and consumption in the residential and commercial sector increased by 2.9% (0.3 Bcf/d) week over week. Natural gas exports to Mexico decreased 3.5% (0.2 Bcf/d). Natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export facilities (LNG pipeline receipts) averaged 12.4 Bcf/d, or 0.2 Bcf/d lower than last week. The natural gas rig count increased by 3 rigs from a week ago to 99 rigs as 1 rig each was added in the Permian, Williston, and other unidentified producing regions. The number of oil-directed rigs was down 4 rigs from a week ago to 484 rigs. The Permian dropped two rigs, and the Cana Woodford, Granite Wash, and Williston each dropped one rig. One rig was added among unidentified producing regions. The total rig count, which includes 4 miscellaneous rigs, now stands at 587 rigs, 36 fewer rigs than a year ago.
STORAGE
Net injections into storage totaled 55 Bcf for the week ending September 27, compared with the five-year (2019–2023) average net injections of 98 Bcf and last year’s net injections of 87 Bcf during the same week. Working natural gas stocks totaled 3,547 Bcf, which is 190 Bcf (6%) more than the five-year average and 127 Bcf (4%) more than last year at this time.
According to The Desk survey of natural gas analysts, estimates of the weekly net change to working natural gas stocks ranged from net injections of 49 Bcf to 62 Bcf, with a median estimate of 57 Bcf.
The average rate of injections into storage is 26% lower than the five-year average so far in the refill season (April through October). If the rate of injections into storage matched the five-year average of 10.5 Bcf/d for the remainder of the refill season, the total inventory would be 3,902 Bcf on October 31, which is 190 Bcf higher than the five-year average of 3,712 Bcf for that time of year.
IN THE NEWS
U.S. natural gas-fired electricity generation set new daily records in summer 2024
U.S. natural gas-fired power plants generated more than 7 million megawatthours (MWh) of electricity on August 2, 2024, according to our Hourly Electric Grid Monitor, making up almost half of all electricity generated in the contiguous United States that day.
On August 2, 2024, 7.1 million MWh of natural gas-fired electricity was generated in the United States, 6.8% more than the previous summer’s record set on July 28, 2023. Nine out of the ten days with the most U.S. natural gas-fired electricity generation on record occurred in the summer of 2024; of those, six occurred in August 2024. Overall electricity generation for the summer (June–August) of 2024 was up by 3% from summer 2023. The daily average for natural gas-fired electricity generation for the summer also increased 3% to 5.9 million MWh.
Reasons for increased U.S. natural gas-fired electricity generation included hotter weather, low natural gas prices, the addition of new combined-cycle generating capacity, and increased generator capacity factors.
Over the past few years, the balance of sources of electricity generation in the United States—especially in the summer—has shifted to more renewables and natural gas and less coal. As electric generation capacity from renewable sources grows, natural gas is used increasingly to balance the intermittent nature of electricity produced from wind and solar. Since 2014, the share of U.S. electricity generation from natural gas in the summer has increased every year except 2021, increasing from 29% in 2014 to 45% in 2024.
