By Aryeh White
We all know that Calhoun County has lost more than half its population since its peak in 1948, but there is a more insidious and troubling decline in this county’s demographics: children.
Since 1930, children as a percentage of county population has fallen in every ten-year census. Even the few times the county population has grown, the share of that population made up of children has fallen.
This is not the same as the population decline of the county, with a slow decline punctuated by fits and starts of rapid decline and the rare decade of small growth. It is a steady, grinding decline averaging -3.45% per decade since 1930. More than 47% of our county’s population was children in 1930. Today children are a little over 16% of the county population.
If we do not act now and act decisively, many of us will live to see the day there are no children in this county. The regression is quite linear, and if the trend continues, the 95% confidence intervals indicate that the county population will be 0% children some year between 2057 and 2082!
In all likelihood, the state will consolidate this county with a neighboring county or the federal government will turn us into a wildlife refuge much like ANWR years before we completely run out of children. Regardless of how the destruction of this county occurs, one thing is clear: there is a demographic expiration date on this county closer than anyone should find comfortable.
The alarming closeness of this demographic cliff is not shared by the rest of the state. West Virginia as a whole has seen an average decline of children as a percent of population at a far lower rate of -2.44% per decade. Roane County has seen -2.48% per decade. In 2020, children made up 20.11% of West Virginia’s population and 21.20% of Roane County’s, both only slightly behind the 21.82% of the United States as a whole. These numbers are in stark contrast to Calhoun County’s 16.23%. More to the point, their regressions are far less linear and point vaguely at the possibility of population collapse at the turn of the next century instead of a mere 44 years hence.
What is causing this loss of our future? A lack of opportunity is causing the young, productive, and fertile to leave the county.
The population drop-off by age after Houners turn 18 is precipitous. The 20-24 age bracket is the smallest 5-year cohort in this county below the age of 80, followed closely by 30-34 and 25-29. People the correct age to have children are not staying in the county and are not coming back in significant numbers until they are in their 50s, at the earliest.
The children of Calhoun County are returning to retire, not to work and not to start families. Their children are being raised with no connection to the county and no reason to return.
There are just over a thousand children in the county now. We have a few hundred more out of the county who are college age, regardless of whether they are attending college. These would be the parents of the next generation in this county…if we can convince them to return or remain.
If we cannot, if we fail to bring the sort of good paying jobs to this county that they can build their lives around, they will have children elsewhere who will grow up never knowing these hills, their roots planted in some other soil, lost to our clay. They leave, we grow old and die, and Calhoun County will be no more.
Calhoun County will never be a metropolis. It will never be a major population center.
But, if we work together, if we bring opportunity to these hills, we can halt our decline. If we succeed, Calhoun County can remain Calhoun County, and I think that is enough.
Excellent article on one facet of the issues that face our county. Doing your homework using data and forecasting modeling trends helps identify a problem and possible solutions. One of the things that we need to do, as you have shown, is to be proactive rather than reactive. Data driven research is a great first step. The next step is to implement a solution when one is decided upon. As far as kids leaving . I have had several older people who have been born and raised here who have told me that when they become 18, our kids are given their diplomas and a bus ticket to Ohio, where hopefully they can have some semblance of a life. Calhoun’s loss is their gain. One of the advantages we have now is we are starting to implement things to reverse that trend. The 1982 foundation came in and is developing a base that others can spring board from. Our city council is revitalizing the park with a pickleball court and other amenities, as well as things like stargazing and community events. All are great and are helping us move forward. But, as your article points out, what we need is manufacturing jobs. And, it is not out of our realm. One thing for certain, we have a capable workforce. We have career centers that turn out first class tradesmen and women in all associated fields. One of the questions fielded to Governor Justice at the Lincoln dinner regarded the fact that some of the higher skilled positions needed to be filled by bringing in outside labor. That is shameful but true. We see it at our water department. Try not only to get a certified water operator, but even if you do, once they get a little job experience, they leave for a higher paying position elsewhere. Who can blame them? So what do we do? We have the people and desire. If you doubt that, look at the volunteers for the bootstrap program. As well as other community service volunteers. People can be trained. But again, trained people need jobs. We seem to have several entities that work alone with very little interaction with other groups. I believe things just kind of evolved that way over the years. But that can change. I believe that there is only a handful of people who do not wish this county to move forward. Every county has a few of those. My suggestion is that we start working together. From my days in manufacturing, I can tell you when a new plant was considered, lots of things were looked at. Things that Calhoun can make happen. We have a planning commission. They make suggestions , I am told, but where do they go from their? Sheila Burch is running on lots of extra cylinders for regional development. We can give her more to work with. Same for our Mayor, City Council and County Commission. What can we do? How about an honest assessment of what our strengths and weaknesses are and develop a package to give to prospective developers. Planned packages, because we want to grow our county with purpose, not just take anything just to take. We need to have zoning and development information., The use of natural gas alone will make prospective factories drool. Whole plants are running on it. Employees need housing and utilities, Water is vital. I know Craig as well as the mayor and the water district personnel are working on that. It is astounding that it was never a priority in all the years before they came aboard. It takes knocking on doors. And keep knocking until we get what we need. Photo ops and lunches just get you a meal and some pictures. Internet and reliable phone service, just to name a few. But it looks like we know have some decision makers taking charge. Bob and the city council, and Craig leading the County Commission! And hopefully elect others who will do the same. If we let people do their jobs and have open communication between all entities, we can move forward in way we can hardly imagine. Or we can keep isolated and let things run their course, until, as your article states, there will be nothing left here. If you think that this all is just pie in the sky talk , okay. But I can tell you this, Before our mayor took office, Grantsville was 2 months from bankruptcy. If Kevin Helmick and team did not do the work to get the compressor station in, God knows where we would be. As a MAGA Republican, I have to give credit where credit is due, despite opposite political views. Because what we are talking about is more than politics. It is our children and our future. More than one set of grandparents have left their roots here to be with the kids and grandchildren. Our question is do we want that trend to continue or do we wish to stop the exodous. Our response will decide.